According to the latest projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the region will grow 4.1% this year in its economy, an estimate 0.5% higher than in October. “Vaccination campaigns in some countries in December have raised hopes for a possible end to the pandemic,” says Tuesday’s report; “In addition, economic data published after the October report suggests a stronger momentum than projected on average, in all regions during the second half of 2020.”
The IMF estimates that Mexico will grow 4.3% in 2021 and Brazil will grow by 3.6%. In October, the organization estimated that Mexico would grow 3.5% this year and Brazil 2.8%, so the new projections are significantly higher. Next year, Mexico could see an expansion of 2.5% and Brazil 2.6%.
Oil prices are expected to rise by 2021 just over 20% since the lowest price seen in 2020, the Fund said; but will remain well below its 2019 average. Non-oil commodity prices are also expected to rise along with metals, which are expected to see a sharp acceleration in prices this year.
“Economic activity seems to be adapting to moderate intensive activity in contact with the passage of time,” the report says. “Additional policies announced by the end of 2020, especially in the United States and Japan, are expected to provide more support in 2021 and 2022 to the world economy. These developments indicate a stronger starting point for the global outlook in 2021-2022 than anticipated in the previous forecast.”